WHY AMERICANS DON’T NEED TO PANIC ABOUT IRAN…FOR NOW

Keep Calm and Read On

[Note: This article was written at 8:00pm 23 June and reflects the situation at that time.]

The situation with Iran is indeed alarming but threats to the US are being overstated, especially regarding risks on US soil. I have worked as an expert on nuclear nonproliferation and disarmament for almost 30 years and know we are safer than many think.

This Iranian nuclear threat is not new; it was already under discussion when I started in the field in 1995. It has since been debated and scrutinized by the international community in minute detail for decades.

Unlike North Korea, Iran is still a member of the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) regime and has continued to cooperate with the nuclear watchdog agency IAEA, with high-level talks taking place as recently as 28 May 2025. However, that cooperation has seriously degraded since the US pulled out of the JCPOA (see below) to the point that the IAEA is unable to confirm what or how much uranium Iran possesses.

Iran denies having any weapons-grade material at all and claims they only have enough uranium for peaceful energy purposes, which is allowed under the NPT. The international consensus is that that is not true, especially as oil-rich Iran does not have a need for nuclear power.

First, there is no evidence anywhere that Iran was actively building a bomb, much less in the next few days or weeks.

The reason given by the Trump Administration was fabricated to suit a particular moment in time to allow Israel and the US to work together to destroy Iran’s nuclear program. The bomb option has historically been used more by Iran to leverage political and military advantage in a continual game of brinksmanship.

US, UN and international reports estimate the amount of Iranian nuclear material that could be weaponized at about 400kg. That is only enough to make about 10-12 warheads, if you have the parts, technology, expertise, opportunity and desire to do so. Iran does not have all of these elements, and its uranium is only enriched 2/3 of the strength needed to make a warhead.

Also, Iran does not have the means to deliver any warhead to US soil.

And that was before the widespread destruction Iran’s assets by Israel and the US over the past week or so. Even before that, their best, longest-range missiles only traveled 1250 miles—which is enough to reach Eastern Europe, not the US. (See graphic below.)

Congressional Research Service, 2019

So, if Iran’s capacity is limited, why has this crisis erupted now?

Two main areas have shifted recently that are impelling the situation forward: 1) Israel’s risk assessment for the region and its relationship to the US, and 2) the physical capabilities of Iran and its proxies.

First, a new political relationship has evolved between Trump et al and the Israelis over the past 8+ years. Trump has repeatedly demonstrated willingness to go along with Netanyahu’s vision for the region, most egregiously support for the war against the Palestinians. Biden and his predecessors had been more guarded and placed constraints on the Israelis, including in their financial and political support.

The current President also seems to care little about violations to international or domestic law, both of which prohibit bombing a sovereign nation without an imminent threat. Netanyahu seized on this advantage as Trump is easily persuaded and willing to act unilaterally—and of course famous for caring more about reputation and winning than following the rules.

Second, the physical and military capabilities of Iran have been seriously damaged in recent weeks by Mossad’s stealth attacks from inside the country on infrastructure and personnel, as well as by their several bombing raids. Israel has also recently eliminated Iran’s usual proxy warriors, Hezbollah and Hamas, by critically maiming their leadership and capabilities.

Iran’s more powerful ally, Syria, specifically Assad, is no longer able to assist, and while they have had military links with Russia and China (the former to whom they sell drones for use in Ukraine,) those are largely transactional and neither superpower has come to Iran’s aid in recent days.

Americans are worried about retaliation on the soil of the US.

A military scenario involving missiles or bombs on the US mainland is extremely remote. This is a point that politicians and the media need to prioritize in all communications going forward, as talk of World War III just inflames anxiety and tension. Since Saturday, the immediate response of even responsible lawmakers has been to raise fears by talking about hard and soft domestic targets, which has unnecessarily fueled fear.

That is not to say there will not be retribution. At the time of writing, Israel has borne the brunt of the US’ foray into Iran, with a face-saving missile or two intercepted in Qatar. There are also threats to target additional American bases in the region or to close the Strait of Hormuz, a vital shipping lane, but the new “ceasefire” agreed by Iran and Israel casts further doubts on any actionable threats.

Trump is again “fixing” a problem he created

Had Trump not pulled out of Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA,) IAEA inspectors would still be verifying every micron of Iran’s nuclear material and infrastructure, and the threshold for action of this kind would be much higher. By reducing available information and creating ambiguity about their real capabilities, the US has created a more likely scenario for military action over diplomacy to solve the problem. This could have been deliberate.

Where do we go from here?

In the most likely scenario, as of today, if the US continues to lead with “we are at war with their nuclear program, not with Iran,” the new ceasefire holds (most are skeptical) and Iran does not escalate its retaliation against US assets, the situation could cool down over time to the point where all parties are ready to sit down and negotiate again. Israel remains the wild card, as does Trump’s proclivity for unpleasant, illogical surprises.

If there is further escalation, the US could see a mix of tactics from Iran like cyberattacks, attacks on commercial ships, the closing of the Strait of Hormuz, as well as random salvos of missiles and drones.

It is highly unlikely that there are “sleeper cells” in the US waiting to be activated, despite statements to the contrary by Iran.

What can Americans do about this?

At a minimum, Americans must stay informed and resist the urge to respond with fatalism. Americans can also educate themselves on real risks and share that information to preempt scaremongering and further division. Neither side of the aisle should be using this issue to score political points. Talk to your friends. Share credible sources. Push back on narratives that exaggerate the threat or distract from the facts.

US citizens should contact their elected representatives to say continued engagement with the Iran conflict is unnecessarily endangering our soldiers abroad. Any loss of more American lives because of Trump’s capricious and unilateral decision-making places him solidly in the crosshairs for responsibility. Republican members of Congress supportive of these moves are equally culpable, as it is the singular purview of Congress to decide to go to war not least because such a dangerous and momentous decision deserves wide consultation and transparency.

The real danger is already here

But most of all, we can all keep calm and not be distracted from fighting the many horrors of the Trump administration’s policies, many of which are endangering the lives of American citizens and immigrants alike. Immigration raids, dismantled public protections, civil rights rollbacks, and attacks on democratic norms are happening right now, here at home. These are not distant or hypothetical threats. They are killing our fellow Americans.

So stay alert—but not afraid. And let’s keep fighting the battles that matter.

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REFERENCES

NPT Safeguards Agreement with the Islamic Republic of Iran, Report by the IAEA Director General, 31 May 2025
https://www.iaea.org/sites/default/files/25/06/gov2025-25.pdf

Iran’s Options for Retaliating Against Israel, by Benjamin Jensen and Yasir Atalan, CSIS
https://www.csis.org/analysis/irans-options-retaliating-against-israel

Report to Congress on Iran’s Ballistic Missile Programs, by U.S. Naval Institute Staff, 18 June 2025
https://news.usni.org/2025/06/18/report-to-congress-on-irans-ballistic-missile-programs

Iran’s Ballistic Missile Programs: Background and Context, by Gettinger, Daniel M.; Thomas, Clayton, Congressional Research Service, 2019
https://www.congress.gov/crs-product/IF13035

Nuclear Talks and Iran’s Missile Program: Addressing the Overlooked Arsenal, by Farzin Nadimi, 3 June 2025
https://www.washingtoninstitute.org/policy-analysis/nuclear-talks-and-irans-missile-program-addressing-overlooked-arsenal

Could the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty Collapse? The Uncertain Road Ahead, by Sharon Riggle, UNIDIR, 2000
https://nuke.fas.org/control/npt/news/1-00-eriggle.pdf

Everything you need to know about Iran’s nuclear program, by Mostafa Salem, Helen Regan and Lou Robinson, CNN, 13 June 13, 2025
https://www.cnn.com/2025/06/13/middleeast/iran-nuclear-program-explainer-intl-dg